Ruslan wrote: ↑2 years ago
I don't really blame Norris much for staying out. That was kind of judgment call based upon an unknown variable (how badly would it rain at the end). Mercedes had every reason to call Hamilton in when they did, as they were not closing on Norris and has plenty of room to his rear for the pit stop. Pitting for McLaren was more of a danger, as he only had a two-second margin to Hamilton.
I think that this is the real issue here, Hamilton had an advantage of over 40 seconds from the car behind him, pitting was the reasonable choice for him because if the rain got heavier he would gain a significant advantage over Norris. On top of that he was chasing Norris and so he had the advantage of knowing what Norris was going to do (the reasonable thing for Hamilton was doing the opposite of what Norris was doing, unless at Mercedes they knew that the rain was going to get heavier). Norris on the other had was in the dark, if he pitted and Hamilton stayed out, assuming that the rain was not going to get worse, he would lose the race. Norris was in a (potentially) lose/lose situation, the only issue that we can speculate about is how much he knew about what the weather was going to do in the very last laps, did McLaren tell him that it was getting worse or not?
Ruslan wrote: ↑2 years ago
I don't really blame Norris much for staying out. That was kind of judgment call based upon an unknown variable (how badly would it rain at the end). Mercedes had every reason to call Hamilton in when they did, as they were not closing on Norris and has plenty of room to his rear for the pit stop. Pitting for McLaren was more of a danger, as he only had a two-second margin to Hamilton.
I think that this is the real issue here, Hamilton had an advantage of over 40 seconds from the car behind him, pitting was the reasonable choice for him because if the rain got heavier he would gain a significant advantage over Norris. On top of that he was chasing Norris and so he had the advantage of knowing what Norris was going to do (the reasonable thing for Hamilton was doing the opposite of what Norris was doing, unless at Mercedes they knew that the rain was going to get heavier). Norris on the other had was in the dark, if he pitted and Hamilton stayed out, assuming that the rain was not going to get worse, he would lose the race. Norris was in a (potentially) lose/lose situation, the only issue that we can speculate about is how much he knew about what the weather was going to do in the very last laps, did McLaren tell him that it was getting worse or not?
Yes, the only real option for McLaren was to pit the lap after Hamilton did. As Norris has only a two second lead before Hamilton pitted, then he could have easily lost the lead if Hamilton had a good lap, Norris has a bad lap, or Norris got delayed a couple of seconds in the pit stops (which seems to happen a lot now that that FIA has changed the pit procedure). So, I really don't blame McLaren and/or Norris for making the decision to stay out. The fact that it did not work out does not mean it was a bad decision.
The issue was not that the weather was going to get worse, but how bad was the rain going to be. A little less rain would not have cost Norris the race. I don't how well you can judge that from the radar images.
I remember in the past hearing that some teams would send spotters outside the track on days when rain was forecast.
Maybe Merc didn't read the radar better, but literally had better intel, knowing that heavier rain was on its way. You only need to have a couple of minutes heads up to complete another lap and get into the pits before it turns to crap.
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MonteCristo wrote: ↑2 years ago
I remember in the past hearing that some teams would send spotters outside the track on days when rain was forecast.
Maybe Merc didn't read the radar better, but literally had better intel, knowing that heavier rain was on its way. You only need to have a couple of minutes heads up to complete another lap and get into the pits before it turns to crap.
Well, Hamilton did say after the race that he was not able to catch Norris before the rain. So, considering that he had nothing too loose, it made sense to pit. May not have had anything to do with "better intel." May have just been the best option at the time and it worked out for them.
MonteCristo wrote: ↑2 years ago
I remember in the past hearing that some teams would send spotters outside the track on days when rain was forecast.
Maybe Merc didn't read the radar better, but literally had better intel, knowing that heavier rain was on its way. You only need to have a couple of minutes heads up to complete another lap and get into the pits before it turns to crap.
Well, Hamilton did say after the race that he was not able to catch Norris before the rain. So, considering that he had nothing too loose, it made sense to pit. May not have had anything to do with "better intel." May have just been the best option at the time and it worked out for them.
Yeah it makes total sense that they went with it. Practically everyone else was pitting, so they had plenty of gap. And if you go on inters and it stays dry-ish, you're just a little slow. If you stay out on drys and its wet, you go off and are as slow as a snail.
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As I said in another thread, Mercedes were not racing Lando for the win in real terms, that was pure bonus and ego..... there job was to beat Max. Max had pitted already the lap prior to Lewis, Merc had a mountain of time up their sleeve, and staying on slicks could well have ended with Lewis in the barriers and facing a much increased championship deficit. Safety first and cover Max was the championship thinking way.
That Lewis also won his 100th race was a bonus but not the job in hand... that bonus was a result of Lando not having any 'big picture' objective beyond winning his first race and the risk that he with hindsight should not have taken. Had the rain not come down as it did Lando would have been a race winner.
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I don't blame Norris for his strategy call either. "Do what the other guy doesn't do" usually works out well for one driver and badly for the other. Difference is that Lewis chose to listen to his team and Lando didn't.
Also what I found incredible was just how little grip slick tyres have on a wet track. Literally like a bowling ball on a bowling lane.
I remember hoping that he stayed out, thinking it was the right call. Even one lap later when it kept raining I said to myself 'he's committed now, he has to stick with it'. So I really can't blame him.
Top drive. Deserved the win. He'll be a winner soon hopefully.
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Some specifics from Autosport re the timing and a lap by lap time comparison to Lando and Lewis highlighting the changeover and how close Lando actually came in real terms.
Bad timing
One of the critical aspects of the way the weather came in at the end of the Sochi race was the timing and the uncertainty about how rain was affecting track grip.
Had the rain arrived at the midpoint of the race, with a high likelihood of the track being wet for a while, then the decision to come in for inters would be obvious.
But with three or four laps to go, then it becomes much more of a critical matter, because a 25-second pitstop can shuffle you well down the order if the tyre choice is not immediately spot on.
In McLaren's case, it knew that, with Hamilton having pitted and leaving Norris with a comfortable cushion out front, inters could be almost 10 seconds per lap quicker and it still would not be worth pitting.
Indeed, immediately after Hamilton came in, there was a phase where it seemed that inters were actually the wrong choice as things appeared to be improving.
Here are how Norris's lap times compared with Hamilton during these critical laps:
Lap Norris lap time Hamilton lap time
46 1m39.120s 1m38.942s
47 1m42.783s 1m42.612s
48 1m54.639s 1m55.730s
49 1m52.785s 1m56.879s (Pits)
50 1m57.502s 2m06.316s (Inters)
51 3m11.081s (Pits) 1m53.532s (Inters)
52 2m16.377s (Inters) 1m52.659s (Inters)
53 1m52.417s (Inters) 1m51.465s (Inters)
As can be seen, on lap 49, the lap where Hamilton pitted, things had improved and Norris had started to go quicker again.
Verstappen pitted on lap 48. His out-lap (49) was 2m07.650, and the following lap (50), he put in a 1m52.546 – which showed that was the point of crossover.
If the conditions had stayed consistent then Norris staying out made total sense, as the time lost pitting at that point was more than the time lost staying on slicks.
But when the rain got worse, the slick pace completely fell away. And, by the time Norris knew he had to come in, it was too late.
Also a bit about the "lead car curse" (remember Lewis at Hungary)
Lead car curse
Being in the lead of the race, with everything to lose, it was obviously a much harder call to pit than running second with a comfortable gap behind.
As the front car, Norris didn't have the option to match what Hamilton was doing, nor do the opposite in a bid to respond.
Furthermore, with Hamilton having a 40-second gap back to third placed Sergio Perez behind, he was not going to lose a position by pitting – so the only downside was if the rain stopped completely and the track quickly dried out.
Mercedes’ decision at this point to bring Hamilton in was also made easier by the team having seen how Valtteri Bottas was performing, with the Finn having had nothing to lose by pitting early.
From McLaren’s perspective, it did not have any information from its second car as Daniel Ricciardo was in a good points-scoring position.
As Seidl said: "Following his radio, Lewis also wanted to stay out. And for him obviously he had the chance to do the opposite of what we're doing. That's simply the situation you're in if you're leading."
The difficulty of jumping first as the lead car is something that was highlighted on the way to the grid in Hungary, when pole man Lewis Hamilton was the only one to stay out on the formation lap – as it seemed such an illogical thing to sacrifice the front spot for a tyre change.
White six wrote: ↑2 years ago
The cream basically rose to the top. Merc and RB got it right, Norris didn't
Did we get an answer if the rain radar info was actually different for Norris? Or did they just fck up/he failed to listen to them?
I'd have thought the pictures of the rainfall were the same for all teams
All teams, the FIA etc all get the identical weather resources from Meteo. It is just the interpretation that is different. ie someone at Merc seems to have done a better job with the same info. Obviously with live radar some of it becomes predictive when you are talking weather in 30 seconds time at one end of the circuit, actual trajectory etc. Teams also generally have spotters at strategic oints of the track relaying info. lus obviously the drivers are giving their feedback. From what I have read Norris was informed it was not going to get worse. It did. Merc had the benefit of being able to pit Bottas earlier to get instant comparative data between Bot and others on slicks to help decide re Lewis. Because Danny Ric was in a good position he was not realistically in the same situation... Bottas was out of the points before he stopped so nothing to lose. One of the instances when it i good to have a loser as a team mate.
Others like Kimi over ruled what Alfa were telling him, said I want inters this lap, Im coming in, was one of the first to stop (same time as Max) and jumped from 15th to 8th as a result. Gio stayed out and ended 16th having stopped 2 laps later.
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“Good drivers have dead flies on the side windows!” (Walter Röhrl)
* I married Miss Right. Just didn't know her first name was Always
White six wrote: ↑2 years ago
The cream basically rose to the top. Merc and RB got it right, Norris didn't
Did we get an answer if the rain radar info was actually different for Norris? Or did they just fck up/he failed to listen to them?
I'd have thought the pictures of the rainfall were the same for all teams
All teams, the FIA etc all get the identical weather resources from Meteo. It is just the interpretation that is different. ie someone at Merc seems to have done a better job with the same info. Obviously with live radar some of it becomes predictive when you are talking weather in 30 seconds time at one end of the circuit, actual trajectory etc. Teams also generally have spotters at strategic oints of the track relaying info. lus obviously the drivers are giving their feedback. From what I have read Norris was informed it was not going to get worse. It did. Merc had the benefit of being able to pit Bottas earlier to get instant comparative data between Bot and others on slicks to help decide re Lewis. Because Danny Ric was in a good position he was not realistically in the same situation... Bottas was out of the points before he stopped so nothing to lose. One of the instances when it i good to have a loser as a team mate.
Others like Kimi over ruled what Alfa were telling him, said I want inters this lap, Im coming in, was one of the first to stop (same time as Max) and jumped from 15th to 8th as a result. Gio stayed out and ended 16th having stopped 2 laps later.
Meteoradar have made a real positive difference to my work too, especially the satellite images of clouds moving
The board equivalent of the Jody scheckter chicane. Fast but pointless
White six wrote: ↑2 years ago
The cream basically rose to the top. Merc and RB got it right, Norris didn't
Did we get an answer if the rain radar info was actually different for Norris? Or did they just fck up/he failed to listen to them?
I'd have thought the pictures of the rainfall were the same for all teams
All teams, the FIA etc all get the identical weather resources from Meteo. It is just the interpretation that is different. ie someone at Merc seems to have done a better job with the same info. Obviously with live radar some of it becomes predictive when you are talking weather in 30 seconds time at one end of the circuit, actual trajectory etc. Teams also generally have spotters at strategic oints of the track relaying info. lus obviously the drivers are giving their feedback. From what I have read Norris was informed it was not going to get worse. It did. Merc had the benefit of being able to pit Bottas earlier to get instant comparative data between Bot and others on slicks to help decide re Lewis. Because Danny Ric was in a good position he was not realistically in the same situation... Bottas was out of the points before he stopped so nothing to lose. One of the instances when it i good to have a loser as a team mate.
Others like Kimi over ruled what Alfa were telling him, said I want inters this lap, Im coming in, was one of the first to stop (same time as Max) and jumped from 15th to 8th as a result. Gio stayed out and ended 16th having stopped 2 laps later.
Not sure it is easy to tell how hard the rain is from the radar images. You can run on slicks in a light rain.
